News organizations are good at making it seem like a horse race that's still kind of neck-in-neck. It's good for fairness amongst the candidates, and it's good for encouraging people to watch the news. But I wanted some straight answers.
Vikas mentioned
Intrade, where people can go buy stock in particular outcomes. They've got Obama at 91.6% right now. But still, that's just a market, and markets aren't always right.
So, is there a better way to end the discussion? Yes. The following table, I think, ends the dispute.
Obama will win the Democratic nomination.*Updated*
Here's how it works:
- Take the current delegate status, minus superdelegates.
- Take recent polls for the next two all remaining contests (Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota), and give Hillary every single undecided voter. (This will not happen in reality unless she singlehandedly prevents a terrorist attack or Obama reveals a new strategy of "hopelessness," with the catchphrase "no we can't!")
- Obama ends up on top, 1702 to 1588.
- Even if you include MI & FL, Obama ends up on top, 1771 to 1766.
In order for Hillary to win, then, 62% of the undecided superdelegates would have to decide to go
against the popular vote. And remember, the real number will be higher than that because every assumption here heavily favored Clinton. Will this happen? No. I'd go buy some Intrade stock if I were you.
Comments (100)
Good points here. I think the only way for Clinton to pull off a victory would be to dominate in the rest of the states like she did in West Virginia on Tuesday. If she does this, she may have the popular vote, but only if Michigan and Florida are counted. So if she sweeps the remaining states she will use this as leverage to convince Howard Dean why she's the popular candidate and therefore Florida and Michigan need to be counted.
But even if she gets all those things she still needs the Super Delegates.
So yeah, she's pretty much screwed, but she's still got a prayer, which is why I think she's still fighting tooth and nail..
Well, I'm rooting for Obama all the way. He's definitely going to get it.
Mathematically speaking she can still pull off a win =)
Thank you.
I play around on the delegate counter at cnn.com and have shown this to my college history professor, who is getting a doctorate, who still believes Hillary can win. Nowwwww, I think she's brilliant and if Obama wasn't in the picture I'd support her fully, but he is. Sooooo....hopefully she'll realize soon that she has lost and thow her full support behind Obama
I like how the media outlets are all behind Obama, counting out even John McCain now. I wonder who'll get most of the media playtime in the Fall.....
I personally believe Hilary will stick it out, even if Obama gets past the nomination threshhold (hey, what happens if they both get past the 2,025 mark???), and will find some way to weasel her way into getting the nomination. The Clintons are too much the savvy pols to let the nomination slide out of their grasp....
Actually, I don't know how to read the table. It's sad.
Ya, I'm with kindofblur...couldn't read that able...but it's good to know that Obama will win.
It would be awesome if Hilary lost by so narrow a margin that she ran as an independent.
Even is she could get the nomination taking Michigan and Florida into account, she would not win the Predisential elections. I think she knows it and in the next days she must admit it.
I think it's a wrap. She has to know when ambition becomes nuclear for her own party. With these numbers it should become very clear for her that she will not get the nomination and only further divide the party.
Hillary definitely still has a chance of winning. The Clintons would attempt every kind of backroom deal to get her the election. The chances of that happening, however, are growing smaller with every passing day as popular opinion strengthens on the side of Obama.
I have to qualify - I never wanted Clinton to win. For many reasons, including the really bad feelings on the part of conservatives (and many democrats) about the Clintons, her playing at being the blue-color voter's dream (ummm...wow), and just plain not trusting the woman, I wouldn't want her as the democratic candidate. Especially because the dems have a real chance at the White House this year, if they don't mess it up like always...
On top of all that, the race has been going to Obama for a while now, and I think it would behoove anyone who cares about the democratic party to acknowledge that, so that we can start the real contest: Obama vs McCain. Let's stop squabbling amongst ourselves and figure out how to win in November.
there are actually markets?
that's silly, markets are all abt money and democracy means little...way less than it should in politics.
im not a political person, but ffs, idiocy much?
The media should focus on issues instead of the race itself!
For Hillary or Barack backers: Do you know differences between their stances on issues, or the policies they would implement? (Because there aren't many.)
It's getting to the point that I've started turning off the news whenever Hillary/Obama stuff comes on. I am tired of hearing about how "close" it is when tables like the one in this post show that Hillary cannot win without a major (and majorly improbable) superdelegate shift. I think she's just got too much pride and too much invested to back out, which is sad. I think it's hurting the party and her reputation to stick it in there even now.
@dreamingfaith -
first, regardless of how few or many differences their are, it's the differences that count in the first place. in my 22 years of life, i have yet to see the main streams of media truly and honestly focus upon solely the issues and not the race, candidates, and mud-slinging involved in campaigning. the republican candidate was not contest even to begin with... so what else do you suggest they focus on at this point? also, i'm having a hard time drawing any huge differences between our current president and mccain... so what does that mean?
second, i don't back obama simply because he's a good speaker and seemingly a decent human being.. although they are part of the reason that i do. not all hillary/barack supporters are blind sheep following without researching issues. give us a little bit of credit here. we do have brains.
Nope. Even so, it doesn't really matter. They are essentially the same candidate. Obama is just a bit more ultra-liberal than she is.
i think it's sad half the people commenting you is supportive of Obama. Are you people watching what he is about? Do some research on both Hillary and Obama, and John McCain... Before you vote for the "popular" person at the time. I do not like Obama. I wouldn't vote for him. *GO HILLARY* or *MCCAIN*
superdelegates are supposed to be independent... which is why i don't understand why they're all waiting around to see who wins the popular vote. why even have them if they are just going to go with the popular vote? why not just have the popular vote winner be the winner?
@mama_jess - And Obama wouldn't fuck it up? The guy is fucking 42% black arab and at a Palistinian's fundraising dinner he called the citizens of Pensylvannia gun-toting religious fanatics (in nicer words, of course). If Obama wins I'm voting Rebublican... and I didn't even intend on fuckng voting.
http://rogue_butterfly.250free.com/Rants/BarakObama.htm
What's really fucking sad is that so many of you are supporting a guy who attended a church that preaced god damn America for tenty fucking years. Trust me, he knew that shit was going on. The guy is anti-American.
Whoever wins, we all lose! But seriously, she's going to drag down the democratic party due to her being stubborn and selfish.
Haha, I can't read the table either.
I don't know if she still has a chance but I really hope she does because otherwise I am voting for McCain! There is no way I will vote for Obama.
I heard that Hillary might run as an independent if she doesn't get the democratic nomination.